Election Night events

Jill, Theresa, Rebecca

Rep. Norm Dicks

We finally reached the end of the campaign season, spent the last day going door to door in Pierce County, holding ballot collections in Tulalip and working on the ground in Yakama and beyond.  From what we can tell, our ground staff tell us that Native turnout in Washington was extremely high.

We rushed to Seattle to catch the Native election night parties at the Daybreak Star Indian Cultural Center and the Presidential Suite of the Westin (thanks Claudia, Andrea, Iris).   We are totally exhausted, somewhat reflective, and absolutely amazed at all the hard work our Board and volunteers accomplished over the past year.

As we await the swearing in of a brand new 44th President – Barack Obama – and the re-swearing in of Governor Christine Gregorie, we also want to congratulate Rep. John McCoy (D-36) who easily won re-election to the Washington House of Representatives, as well as Jeff Morris (D-40) also won handily.  The race out in Spokane for Don Barlow (D-6) is still too close to call.

We’ll keep you posted on all the new developments happening out here in Washington!

Presidential Suite, Westin Seattle

Gabe and Marty

Andrea

Sen. Claudia Kauffman and Aaron

Our First Presidential Election Outlook

We believe that the most likely election scenario now puts McCain in serious jeopardy of losing the election unless he pulls off victories in ALL of the following states: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

 

Under this scenario, McCain can absorb likely losses in New Mexico and Iowa, both of which went to the GOP side of the column in 2004, and still win the White House, but the task is daunting.

 

McCain’s chances of picking off any of the states won by John Kerry in 2004 appear slim to none.  Polling in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Michigan all look bleak for the Arizona Senator.

 

McCain has already pulled his campaign out of Michigan and this week the RNC pulled its advertising out of Wisconsin and Maine. 

 

And Obama is challenging McCain in a way no one thought possible just three months ago.  He is fighting a close battle in Virginia. CNN has Obama leading by 10 point while CNU has Obama up by 6 points.

 

One of the clearest pictures of how the McCain strategy is unfolding is that the RNC now has a goal of spending $18 million over 18 days in just eight states – Indiana, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

 

On the other side of the ledger, if Obama can hold all of the Kerry States in 2004, pick off Iowa and New Mexico, then all he has to do to win is carry one of the close states – Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, or Indiana.

 

You are starting to get the picture now – we approaching a realistic scenario where McCain has to run the table on a lot of close states, while Obama only has to win one of those races.  It’s like being down 3-0 or 3-1 in the World Series.  You have to sweep all of the remaining games to win.

 

That, my friends, is a tall order.

 

Where does that leave the Indian vote?  Well, to be certain, if the contests in Nevada or Colorado or North Carolina come down to a few thousand votes, then the Native Vote will be decisive.

 

Of course, that’s assuming that Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, or Ohio break do not break for Obama early in the election evening (polls closing at 7pm EST).  In that case, it’s likely game over.

The fact that the McCain campaign seems to be conceding New Mexico to Obama may be a direct result of the influence of the Native Vote.  And if Minnesota or Wisconsin tighten up then the Native Vote will most certainly come into play.  And this is striking – it seems that North Dakota is starting to come into play which means that the Native Vote there could be huge.  We’ll keep you posted!

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Native Candidates in the News

John McCoy

As we near the finish line, our local papers are starting to roll out their assessments and endorsements of the so-called “Down Ballot” candidates.  As our readers already know, we have three Native American incumbents seeking re-election this fall in the Washington State legislature.  Two of them are in the news today.

First, the Seattle Times has endorsed the re-election of State Rep. John McCoy (D-Tulalip), a member of the Tulalip Tribes, for a fourth term.  Citing the state and the nation’s troubled economy, the Times says that McCoy “is needed”.  McCoy is the brains behind the Tulalip Tribes’ sparkling economic gem – Quil Ceda Village – which includes the massive Tulalip Casino Resort & Spa.  So it makes sense that the Times would place a strong emphasis on McCoy’s business experience over his challenger’s lack of business experience.

Jeff Morris

Up in the State’s 40th Legislative District, Rep. Jeff Morris (D-Anacortes), who is Tsimshian, is running for re-election against Green Party candidate Howard Pellet.  The Bellingham Herald previews this election race with a lengthy write up.  Morris is running for his 7th term and cites education, a balanced budget, and energy as his top priorities.   Morris’s rise to power has taken him to the position of Speaker Pro Tem of the House Democratic Caucus this past legislative session.

We wish both Native candidates well in their re-election bids.

REGISTER to VOTE TODAY

We here at Native Vote Washington care a lot about you and all of our friends and family.  So, now that the election is a month away, we want to make sure that you can cast your vote.  It’s important because you speak for your children and others in your community who can’t (or maybe are just ornery and don’t) vote.  You have until tonight at midnight to register to vote on line in Washington.  Don’t miss out on the chance to vote in what is the most historic election we’ve ever witnessed in our lifetimes.  You can register by clicking here at our website.   Thanks.  And thanks for caring.

Latest poll has Obama leading by 11 points in Washington

The Latest SurveyUSA poll, conducted for KING 5 TV in Seattle, shows that Senator Barack Obama has re-opened a large lead over Senator John McCain in what was once considered a battleground state.  The poll was conducted September 21^st and 22^nd.  The poll of likely voters has Obama with 54% and McCain with 43%. 

 

Among Independents, Obama holds a 7 point lead, and among self-described Moderates, Obama holds a 20 point lead.

 

Only 2 weeks ago (just after the GOP convention), SurveyUSA had McCain within striking distance of Obama, who held a slim 49% to 45% lead.

 

In a related poll, the Governor’s race remains too close to call.  Governor Christine Gregoire (D) leads challenger Dino Rossi (prefers GOP) by only 2 points, within the poll’s margin of error.  Independents favor Rossi by 10 points but Moderates prefer Gregoire by 11 points.

 

This race looks like it will come down to a hundred, may several thousand votes.  That means YOU (Natives) will determine the outcome!

Salmon Homecoming Was a Blast!

Some of the Faithful

We had a great time down at the Salmon Homecoming last weekend!  What a great event – and the weather was perfect.  Between the Indians, volunteers, vendors, dancers, drummers, well-wishers, tourists, regular folk, and friends, there had to be at least 10,000 people who ventured into or by the wharves and piers where the homecoming was held.

 

 

 

We saw seals playing in the bay, canoe landings, cruise ships and ferries, Oklahoma football fans, and other unique sightings!  The food was outstanding, the organizers and volunteers who put on the annual event are the nicest and most generous people ever.

 

We registered a lot of new voters, sold our newest T-Shirt design, and signed up over a hundred new members.  Most importantly, we reminded people that you HAVE to be registered to vote here in Washington (and most other states since there were a lot of out of state visitors who dropped by).  And registration for most people closes 30 days before the election.  So that means you have about 3 weeks to register to make a difference in the future our your state and your country.

 

We’ll be out there, so drop us a line at info@nativevotewa.org if you have any questions!  See you soon.

Hungry seals enjoy salmon too!

Salmon Homecoming

The Native Vote Washington team will be down on the waterfront at the Seattle Aquarium and Waterfront Park this Saturday to register new voters, update current voter registrations, sell our nifty T-shirts, answer questions and tell fortunes.  Please come on down.  The Salmon Homecoming itself is a fantastic event put on each year by the non-profit Salmon Homecoming Alliance whose mission is to restore and protect the salmon.   The Homecoming always takes place in the fall to celebrate and welcome the return of the salmon from the ocean to the Pacific Northwest’s rivers and streams where they will spawn.  The Homecoming always features arts and crafts, dances, educational forums, ceremonies, carvings, kids activities, music and lots of food.  And it’s all right down on the waterfront with glorious views of the Puget Sound, Alki beach, the Olympic Mountains, and the ferries.   The Salmon Homecoming is this weekend, starting off with a forum and ceremony Thursday evening in the Aquarium, and then all-day activities on the waterfront Friday through Sunday.  Agenda is here.

And since it’s Homecoming weekend, we are dieting furiously so we can squeeze into our gowns and rental tuxes.  We can only hope that this year, the varsity Salmon bring home the big trophy so we can really let loose in the Gymnasium Saturday night!

A Close Race in the East

We at Native Vote Washington thought we would let everyone know that there is likely going to be a close race in the 6th Legislative District Representative, held by Don Barlow (D).  Barlow is a Native American, a member of the Ottawa Tribe of Oklahoma. 

Barlow won his seat in 2006 by just 260 votes over incumbent John Serben (R).  Serben won round one in 2004 by beating Barlow by 2361 votes.

The gloves have already come off in the battle between the Republican challengers, Mel Lindauer and Kevin Parker.

According to PolitickerWA.com, Barlow has $23,000 on hand, Lindauer has $21,000 and Parker has $19,000.  

Prior to Barlow’s victory, the 6th LD had sent Republicans to Olympia for the past 66 years.

The Youth Vote Matters in Indian Country

The New York Times’ Jennifer Steinhauer writes up a story about the decrease in voters registering as Republicans – “G.O.P. Drops in Voting Rolls in Many States”.  http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/us/politics/05flip.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin

 

 

 

One angle is that younger voters are tending to vote Democratic, rather than Republican.  The Times points out that the population of 18- to 24-year-olds rose from about 27 million in 2000 to nearly 30 million in 2006.

 

Our research shows that within the Nation’s and Washington State’s Native American communities, there is an even larger component of young voters.

 

In 2007, the median age for all people in the United States was 36.6, compared to a median age for all Native American people of 31.4, a gap of more than 5 years.  In Washington, the 2006 statewide median age was 37.1, compared to 30.6, the median age for Native Americans in the state, a gap of 6 and a half years.

 

And while the Times’ report shows an 11% growth in 18-24 year olds nationwide, in Indian Country the population rose by 20%!

 

The bottom line is that our youth make up a critical part of the Native Vote and that more than ever the national and state parties must turn their attention to this crucial constituency and their needs.