Our First Presidential Election Outlook

We believe that the most likely election scenario now puts McCain in serious jeopardy of losing the election unless he pulls off victories in ALL of the following states: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

 

Under this scenario, McCain can absorb likely losses in New Mexico and Iowa, both of which went to the GOP side of the column in 2004, and still win the White House, but the task is daunting.

 

McCain’s chances of picking off any of the states won by John Kerry in 2004 appear slim to none.  Polling in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Michigan all look bleak for the Arizona Senator.

 

McCain has already pulled his campaign out of Michigan and this week the RNC pulled its advertising out of Wisconsin and Maine. 

 

And Obama is challenging McCain in a way no one thought possible just three months ago.  He is fighting a close battle in Virginia. CNN has Obama leading by 10 point while CNU has Obama up by 6 points.

 

One of the clearest pictures of how the McCain strategy is unfolding is that the RNC now has a goal of spending $18 million over 18 days in just eight states – Indiana, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

 

On the other side of the ledger, if Obama can hold all of the Kerry States in 2004, pick off Iowa and New Mexico, then all he has to do to win is carry one of the close states – Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, or Indiana.

 

You are starting to get the picture now – we approaching a realistic scenario where McCain has to run the table on a lot of close states, while Obama only has to win one of those races.  It’s like being down 3-0 or 3-1 in the World Series.  You have to sweep all of the remaining games to win.

 

That, my friends, is a tall order.

 

Where does that leave the Indian vote?  Well, to be certain, if the contests in Nevada or Colorado or North Carolina come down to a few thousand votes, then the Native Vote will be decisive.

 

Of course, that’s assuming that Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, or Ohio break do not break for Obama early in the election evening (polls closing at 7pm EST).  In that case, it’s likely game over.

The fact that the McCain campaign seems to be conceding New Mexico to Obama may be a direct result of the influence of the Native Vote.  And if Minnesota or Wisconsin tighten up then the Native Vote will most certainly come into play.  And this is striking – it seems that North Dakota is starting to come into play which means that the Native Vote there could be huge.  We’ll keep you posted!

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4 Responses to “Our First Presidential Election Outlook”

  1. sandra beasley Says:

    osiyo hello in cherokee I live in ohio one of the key battlegtround states, and I can tell you from living in cuyahoga county which is has a huge african american population and at least 1% maybe more native americans living in the east and west side of Cleveland ,that there are more obama biden for president signs in Cleveland that there are of Mc Cain And Pailin. The Obama Biden campain has really encouraged people to register to vote and to vote early. Nothing like that in the Mcain Pailn Camps. I did see someone witha Mcain Pailin Sign in Richmond heights ohio which is outside cleveland yet for every one Mcain Pailn Sign you see more than one Obama Biden sign . so if the election was held now in my area Barack Obama and Joe Biden would win by a landslide margin. So I just want to encourage everyone to go to the polls and vote !if your tribal nation has trbial elections vote in your trbial elections first and then in the General Election. this is way to imporant to miss out on. wa’ddo thank you in cherokee for this wonderful work that you are doing it’s not only benifiting the state of Washington is benifiting every tribe and evey Native American Native Alaskan Aborgional and indgeious person in this country. keep up the great work! Sandra Beasley Unenrolled Cherokee African American White Democarat who voted for Barack Obama and Joe biden for president and vice president of the US.

  2. sandra beasley Says:

    Osiyo hello from Cleveland Ohio I just wanated to update you since the last posting. the Scence magazine which is a very independet magazine that has snice merged with another independet magazine the free times has a picture of John McCain on the cover and it says joke .The Scence has endorese Barack Obama for the Presidency of the United States. Meanwhile I did see a McCain Pailn poster in little italy in Cleveland which is part of Cleveland . On the campus of Case Western Reserve University there was a big obama poster and a campus group willing to take students to the board of elections so they could vote. there are two business where I live that have obama posters in their shops . And on the front page of the cleveland plain dealer dated october 30, 2008 they are saying that there may be even longer lines come election day even though they have an absantee voting progam in place. the Plain Dealer has not endorsed anyone for president So far. that’s all for now wa’do thank you Sandra Beasley Unenrolled Cherokee African American White

  3. sandra beasley Says:

    osiyo hello in cherokee an d finally it’s election day so this will be my final one from cleveland. the last time i saw the board of elections bus wise that is they putted out tents to protect people from the cold, the lines were getting long for everyone that was going in to vote there would be one going out from voting. there was a buisness in cleveland that had a mcaain pailn sign, yet from what i have seen it’s defintley Barack Obama in Cuyahoga Country. outside of Cuyahoga County it’s a toss up. I also saw a big advertisement from the navajo times newspaper in which I am a subscriber from the obamba biden campagin getting people to vote. the obama biden campaign even had a big advertisement in the scence freetimes newspaper encouraging people to vote early and boy has it worked in cleveland. the voting at the MLK libary and where i used to vote ( iam now an absantee voter)has been light yet people have been voting and that’s the good thing. wa’do native vote washingtion for posting this and all the best to all of you. ps for those of you that have cable or the internet the best way to watch the election results is c-span http://www.c-span.org and democaracy now democaracynow.org will have election night ocverage from 7-midnight eastern time.and as always gold old fashion pbs.

  4. sandrabsly Says:

    Osiyo hello In cherokee I know I said that this would have been proably been my last posting but as the title of the james bond movie said it best never say never again. Ijust wanated to give you the results from Cleveland ohio and from Ohio. according to the Ohio News Network and their increadiable vote tracking system,with 96% of the vote comming in president elect I just love saying that Barack Obama won the state of Ohio 51% Senator John McCain with 47% Independet canadiate Ralph Nader with one Percent. in Cuyahoga County my neck of the woods with 96% of the vote still comming in President Elect Barack Obama won cuyahonga county with a amazing 69% John McCain finished second with a 30% and Ralph Nader with 1%. so many people voted yesterday in Cleveland and Cleveland heights where I spent my day it was amazing. I had met a neighbor of my family who wore a President Elect barack Obama and Martin Luther King t shirt . He and his family voted that day that wonderful day in america where can actually say change has come. I am a 44 years young Cherokee African American Woman and I never thought I would live to see this day come and it feels great! to all those who voted who volunteered for the canadate of your choice, I say wa’do thank you in cherokee to standing up for what you believed in. no one loses when they praticipate in the electioral process whether you vote volunteer, donated money to the canadate of your choice, run for office in tribal ,state ,local ,or national elections or did all of the above everyone wins because everyone especially in Indian Country made a difference for ourselves and future generations to come.

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