New Poll in Gregoire vs Rossi race

your Native Vote Team

your Native Vote Team

According to a recently published Elway poll, incumbent Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire has doubled her lead to 16 points (52% to 36%) over Republican challenger and former State Senator Dino Rossi.   Elway’s June poll had Gregoire leading Rossi by a margin of 47% to 39%.  Elway’s margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.





The Elway poll gives Gregoire a much bigger lead than another poll by Survey USA which in mid-July gave Gregoire a 3 point lead of 49% to 46% over Rossi.  Earlier Survey USA polls showed Gregoire holding steady around 49-50% and Rossi at 46-47%, a much closer race than Elway would predict.


In 2004, Gregoire edged out Rossi by a margin of only 133 votes out of nearly 2.8 million votes cast statewide.


Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain in Washington by a 47% to 35% margin  according to the Elway poll, with 18% undecided.  The earlier Survey USA Poll gave Obama a similar lead over McCain, 55% to 39% with 6% undecided.


There are nearly 110,000 eligible Native Americans voters in Washington State, coming from 29 tribes and urban centers.  If a candidate can successfully make his or her case to Washington’s Native voters, then a 10% lead among Native voters will likely translate into an extra 7,100 votes, while a 20% lead will equal a margin of 21,000 votes.  This means that a candidate who reaches out to Native Voters will have a substantial advantage in the August primaries and the November elections, while a candidate who ignores the Native Vote does so at his or her peril.


Link to Pollster:


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