Archive for McCain

Obama draws nearly 90% of Native Vote

Posted in Native Vote Washington with tags , , , on October 31, 2008 by nativevotewa

Native Vote Washington conducted a poll of 600 American Indian and Alaska Native voters from 30 states including Washington, Arizona, New Mexico, Montana and Oklahoma.  The poll examined voter preference in the Presidential race between Democratic candidate Senator Barack Obama and Republican candidate Senator John McCain.  The poll also examined voter attitude with respect to right track versus wrong track.  The sample was drawn from a pool of likely voters and those who had already voted.

 

Among Native voters in the NVW poll, Democratic candidate Barack Obama leads his Republican opponent, John McCain by 83 points.  Among Natives who have already cast ballots, Obama leads his opponent by 85 points.

 

Among Native American men, Obama leads by 86 points.  Among women, Obama leads by 80 points, leading us to conclude that there is no significant gender gap between Native female and male voters. Obama does well across all age ranges but performs best among younger Native voters.  Among Natives ages 18 to 34, Obama leads by 91%; while among Natives ages 35 to 54, Obama leads by 83%; and among Natives ages 55 and over, Obama leads by 84%.

 

Among Washington Native voters, Obama leads by 91 points.  Surprisingly, in Arizona, Obama leads by 60 points.  Oklahoma appears to be McCain’s strongest state where he runs even with Obama at 42%.  In the battleground state of New Mexico, Obama has a huge 72 point lead.  Finally, in Montana, Obama leads by 94 points with more Undecideds (3%) than McCain (2%).

 

If the election were being held today, would you vote for (or have already voted for):

 

Obama (%)    McCain (%)    Undecided/Other (%)

Overall                        89                    6                      5

Already Voted           95                    4                      1

 

Men                             91                    5                      4

Women                       87                    7                      6

 

Ages 18-34                87                    7                      6

Ages 35-54                89                    6                      5

Ages 55+                   90                    6                      4

 

Obama           McCain           Undecided/Other

WA                              94                    3                      2

AZ                               74                    14                    12

NM                              85                    13                    2

OK                              42                    42                    16

MT                               94                    2                      3

 

 

At this moment, do you believe our country is on the right track or the wrong track?

 

                                    Right Track              Wrong Track                        Unsure

Overall                       3%                              87%                            10%

 

Methodology: The Native Vote Washington Poll contacted over 700 adult Native Americans attending the National Indian Education Association annual convention in Seattle on October 23-25.  The Poll excluded “somewhat likely” as well as “not likely” and “Not Native” voter respondents.  The Poll surveyed Native Americans from 30 states by direct in-person contact using volunteers and NVW staff in attendance at the NIEA convention.   Survey respondents were chosen at random from a registered convention attendance figure of approximately 3,000 attendees.  Adults in each sample were adjusted as needed to census proportions of sex and age. The margin of sampling error for adults and likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points.  For smaller subsets such as States, the margin of error may be greater.

At the NIEA Convention

Posted in Native Vote Washington with tags , , , , on October 23, 2008 by nativevotewa
Senator Claudia Kauffman

Senator Claudia Kauffman

We are attending the annual National Indian Education Association’s annual convention - the largest annual convention of Native Americans in the nation – which this year is in Seattle.  We are there on the ground conducting a national survey of Native American voters on the 2008 Presidential Election.  This should be big.  Here are some pix we have taken so far.

Our First Presidential Election Outlook

Posted in Native Vote Washington with tags , , , , on October 17, 2008 by nativevotewa

We believe that the most likely election scenario now puts McCain in serious jeopardy of losing the election unless he pulls off victories in ALL of the following states: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

 

Under this scenario, McCain can absorb likely losses in New Mexico and Iowa, both of which went to the GOP side of the column in 2004, and still win the White House, but the task is daunting.

 

McCain’s chances of picking off any of the states won by John Kerry in 2004 appear slim to none.  Polling in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Michigan all look bleak for the Arizona Senator.

 

McCain has already pulled his campaign out of Michigan and this week the RNC pulled its advertising out of Wisconsin and Maine. 

 

And Obama is challenging McCain in a way no one thought possible just three months ago.  He is fighting a close battle in Virginia. CNN has Obama leading by 10 point while CNU has Obama up by 6 points.

 

One of the clearest pictures of how the McCain strategy is unfolding is that the RNC now has a goal of spending $18 million over 18 days in just eight states – Indiana, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

 

On the other side of the ledger, if Obama can hold all of the Kerry States in 2004, pick off Iowa and New Mexico, then all he has to do to win is carry one of the close states – Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, or Indiana.

 

You are starting to get the picture now – we approaching a realistic scenario where McCain has to run the table on a lot of close states, while Obama only has to win one of those races.  It’s like being down 3-0 or 3-1 in the World Series.  You have to sweep all of the remaining games to win.

 

That, my friends, is a tall order.

 

Where does that leave the Indian vote?  Well, to be certain, if the contests in Nevada or Colorado or North Carolina come down to a few thousand votes, then the Native Vote will be decisive.

 

Of course, that’s assuming that Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, or Ohio break do not break for Obama early in the election evening (polls closing at 7pm EST).  In that case, it’s likely game over.

The fact that the McCain campaign seems to be conceding New Mexico to Obama may be a direct result of the influence of the Native Vote.  And if Minnesota or Wisconsin tighten up then the Native Vote will most certainly come into play.  And this is striking – it seems that North Dakota is starting to come into play which means that the Native Vote there could be huge.  We’ll keep you posted!

***

Latest poll has Obama leading by 11 points in Washington

Posted in Native Vote Washington with tags , , , on October 1, 2008 by nativevotewa

The Latest SurveyUSA poll, conducted for KING 5 TV in Seattle, shows that Senator Barack Obama has re-opened a large lead over Senator John McCain in what was once considered a battleground state.  The poll was conducted September 21st and 22nd.  The poll of likely voters has Obama with 54% and McCain with 43%. 

 

Among Independents, Obama holds a 7 point lead, and among self-described Moderates, Obama holds a 20 point lead.

 

Only 2 weeks ago (just after the GOP convention), SurveyUSA had McCain within striking distance of Obama, who held a slim 49% to 45% lead.

 

In a related poll, the Governor’s race remains too close to call.  Governor Christine Gregoire (D) leads challenger Dino Rossi (prefers GOP) by only 2 points, within the poll’s margin of error.  Independents favor Rossi by 10 points but Moderates prefer Gregoire by 11 points.

 

This race looks like it will come down to a hundred, may several thousand votes.  That means YOU (Natives) will determine the outcome!

Wailin’ About Palin & the Supreme Court

Posted in Native Vote Washington, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , on October 1, 2008 by nativevotewa

We cannot emphasize enough how important the Supreme Court is in the actual day to day lives Native Americans.  The Court has recently started ruling against Indian interests at an alarming rate.  Just this year we were alarmed at Court decisions that came down against the Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe and upheld an incredibly strict voter identification law that Indian tribes opposed.

 

Now, the Supreme Court announced that it will once again hear the Navajo Nation’s case against the U.S. government for failing to carry out its trust duties and cheating the Tribe out of $600 million.  In 2003 the Supreme Court rejected the Navajo claim but sent the case back down to the lower courts to determine if there were specific laws that the government broke.  Well, the courts found that there were, but the case has wound its way back into the Supreme Court which is not a good sign if you’re Navajo.  And the Supreme Court has also decided that it will examine one of the cornerstone Indian laws – the 1934 Indian Reorganization Act – to see if the U.S. can actually take new land into trust for a tribe that had the misfortune of being nearly exterminated and only being formally recognized again 30 years ago.

 

We hear that two (John Paul Stevens, 88, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 75 with health issues) liberal Supreme Court Justices are likely to retire after the election.  That means either Barack Obama or John McCain will appoint the next two Justices.  If it’s Obama, that probably means the Court will probably hold its slightly conservative postion.  And if it’s McCain, it probably means a far more conservative court will emerge.  Either way, the likelihood is that the Court will stay that way for at least a decade.

 

But maybe what has us VERY concerned is McCain’s running mate, who may wind up being President and making the Supreme Court picks.  We found out this from Politico.

 

Of concern to McCain’s campaign, however, is a remaining and still-undisclosed clip from Palin’s interview with Couric last week that has the political world buzzing.

 

The Palin aide, after first noting how “infuriating” it was for CBS to purportedly leak word about the gaffe, revealed that it came in response to a question about Supreme Court decisions.

 

After noting Roe vs. Wade, Palin was apparently unable to discuss any major court cases.

 

There was no verbal fumbling with this particular question as there was with some others, the aide said, but rather silence.

Sprint to the Finish (55 days to the election)

Posted in Native Vote Washington with tags , , , , , , , on September 9, 2008 by nativevotewa

We love where we are – our reservations, small towns, Spokane, Bellingham, Seattle – you get the picture.  But we are especially grateful for the fact that we live in a state where Native American voters make up approximately two and a half percent of the State’s voters which is north of 120,000 Indian votes here.  That’s a lot of votes and it means that the Indian vote has a serious impact on a lot of races – from the much ballyhooed Obama versus McCain presidential race to the Governor’s race, to the competitive Congressional matchups, and to the State House and Senate races.

 

We don’t have to remind you that the margin of victory for Governor Christine Gregoire in 2004 was only 133 votes.  Or that Senator Maria Cantwell eked out a 2,229 vote win in 2000 over Slade Gorton.

 

But we will remind you that if just 60% of our eligible Native American voters register and vote, that means there will be more than 70,000 Native votes up for grabs. 

 

A review of voting data in the 2004 elections show that voting on the Navajo Reservation in Arizona, the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota, and the Zuni Reservation in New Mexico, averaged almost 80-20 for John Kerry over George Bush.

 

We will be conducting a Native preference poll in the next couple of weeks, but until then, let’s make a rebuttable projection that has Washington Natives voting along the 2004 lines.  That means Obama and Gregoire would hold a 42,000 vote advantage in Washington over McCain and Rossi.

 

But that’s not in line with the most recent Survey USA poll that shows the Obama vs McCain race neck and neck!  Obama’s 7 point lead has shrunk to 4 points (close to the margin of error) and Rossi has surged ahead of Gregoire by 1 point, which while a statistical tie, represents a 3 point drop for the Governor.

 

SO, a wise word to the Campaigns – If you want to tap into the Native Vote, you need to do so quickly and with gusto!  The votes that can determine the outcome of your races are there for the taking.  But if you don’t do your field work or don’t tell us you care about issues that matter to Native voters you are going to end up GIVING the election away.

Jack Abramoff gets 4 years

Posted in Native Vote Washington with tags , , , , , , on September 5, 2008 by nativevotewa

Abramoff in Better Days

Abramoff in Better Days

Jack Abramoff, former super-lobbyist and now common-thief, was sentenced yesterday to four years of jail time for crimes that include stealing from Indian tribes while at the same time calling them all sorts of names behind their backs.

 

We want to note that Presidential candidate John McCain worked hard as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs to seriously investigate Abramoff at a time when the GOP-controlled Congress was not especially keen on investigating a lobbyist with strong GOP ties.  McCain, aware that the investigation might not shine an entirely friendly or positive light on Indian gaming, or the tribes that used Abramoff’s services, said back in 2005:

 

“I commend the tribes and their leaders for having the wisdom to understand that this investigation is not an attack on tribal sovereignty, for displaying the courage to cooperate in the face of their critics, and for having the perseverance to see this through until the bitter end.”

 

McCain unearthed the fact that six tribes – the Coushatta Tribe of Louisiana, the Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians, the Saginaw Chippewa Indian Tribe of Michigan, the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians, the Pueblo of Ysleta del Sur of Texas, and the Pueblo of Sandia of New Mexico – paid over $66 million to Abramoff’s partner Mike Scanlon’s firm, which secretly rerouted $21 million to Abramoff himself. The $66 million does not include the millions paid directly to Abramoff or to his foundation or the Council for Republican Environmental Advocacy, or a fake think tank (run by a lifeguard)! Since McCain’s investigation discovered that Abramoff and Scanlon used most fees on their own projects (restaurants, schools) and their own homes, it is hard to see how the tribes got a good deal. In fact, the McCain report shows that the Coushatta paid Scanlon $30 million, of which about $21 million was profit, which Scanlon and Abramoff secretly split.

 

Oh well, as a non-profit we can only sigh when we recall former Abramoff confidant (and convicted criminal/girlfriend of Steve Griles) Italia Federici’s e-mail that said, “ahhh – the glamorous world of non-profit work – about one half step above beggar!”

 

 

Ironically, we are not sure how Abramoff (a man who once impressed tribal leadership with talk about “breaking bones and busting kneecaps”, McCain report page 187) will fare in jail. We’ll be checking out his new prison tats for clues. We think he should have to work as some sort of prison butler (let’s be honest, we can think of another word) for Leonard Peltier as part of his sentence, but that’s just us.

 

And to think that this whole investigation started because Scanlon decided to call off his engagement so he could start dating a 24 year old waitress … Keep that in mind. 

McCain biopic, Slade Gorton

Posted in Native Vote Washington with tags , , , , , on August 26, 2008 by nativevotewa

Just trying to keep things a bit even here…

 

Today, we call attention to an in-depth bio of Senator John McCain by the Gray Lady’s David Kirkpatrick.  It’s a good read.  One thing of particular interest to us is Kirkpatrick’s report that McCain “boasted that his unwillingness to campaign for Sen. Slade Gorton of Washington contributed to his narrow loss in 2000.”  We remain grateful to this day for that.  Given that McCain also was the ONLY Republican Senator to refuse to sign a letter to President Bush supporting Gorton for a lifetime appointment to the prestigious U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals (we owe you again!), we find it bizarre that McCain asked Gorton, who actually agreed, to serve as his WA State campaign chair in 2007.  Since then, Gorton has raised a lot of money for McCain.   We didn’t think Slade ever got over the Boldt decision, so we’re pretty amazed at how quickly he has gotten over McCain’s repeated career torpedoings.

McCain Closing Gap in WA; Sunsets

Posted in Native Vote Washington with tags , , , , , , , , on August 15, 2008 by nativevotewa
Sun setting over the Sound

Sun setting over the Sound

Moon hitting the olympics

Moon hitting the olympics

Well, the big races are getting closer!  Today, KING 5 TV (Seattle) and Survey USA released a new poll showing that McCain has whittled the gap between him and Obama to 7 points here in WA State.  Last month’s Survey USA poll had Obama cruising with a 17 point lead.  McCain has strength east of the Cascades where he leads Obama by 13 points.  That contrasts with Obama’s 15 point lead in the metro Seattle region.  The poll did not return enough results to measure Native American, Black, or Hispanic preferences, but among Whites, Obama leads by 5 points and among Asians, Obama leads by an astounding 50 points! 

Of course, we’re 80 days out from the election, and both the GOP and the Dems have to have their conventions, but the results tell us that, um, say a 60-40 or even 70-30 edge among Native American voters could decide the fall election. 

As we’ve said before, there are about 110,000 eligible Native Voters in WA, and we estimate that if one candidate, say McCain, were to carry the Native vote here by a 60-40 margin, that would likely translate into a 21,000 vote cushion, based on a 65% turnout rate. 

On the Gregoire – Rossi front, the KING 5 / Survey USA poll shows them in a statistical tie. 

There are a lot of fairs and pow wows and events going on all over WA reservations, so now is the time for the candidates to make hay.

On a totally different note, we love the sunsets and moonsets that the Creator blesses us with.  Above are a couple of pics overlooking the Puget Sound and the Olympics.  Great to be a Washingtonian (or Washingtonienne)!

Nighthorse Campbell Says Dems offer Indians “Dependency Programs”

Posted in Native Vote Washington with tags , , , , , , , , , , on August 11, 2008 by nativevotewa

Former US Sen Ben Nighthorse Campbell

Former US Sen Ben Nighthorse Campbell

 

Former GOP Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell campaigned on behalf of Presidential candidate John McCain in Green Bay, Wisconsin last week.  He acknowledged that McCain has an uphill battle in getting a majority of Native Americans to vote for him, but says the situation is changing:

 

“There’s this sort of new awakening in the Indian people now that they don’t want to be dependent on anybody, that they want to be self-sufficient,” Campbell said. “But there’s still an awful lot of Indian people who are still kind of, they grew up with that sort of dependency mentality. Any Democratic candidate, they see that: ‘If you elect me, I’ll get you more things from the federal government.’”

 

Wisconsin is a battleground state in the 2008 presidential election.  Senator John Kerry won the state in 2004 by just over 11,000 votes, a margin of less than one-half of one percent.  Native Americans make up 1.3% of Wisconsin’s population and bring a voting eligible population of nearly 47,000.

 

Campbell served in the U.S. House of Representatives for six years as a Democrat, won his Senate seat in 1992 as a Democrat, switched to a Republican in 1995, and then won reelection as a Republican Senator in 1998 before retiring in at the end of 2004.

 

Campbell served as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, from 1997-2001 and from 2003-2004.   He is a member of the Northern Cheyenne Tribe of Montana.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.